US$147/B One Year On

Political Winners and Strategic Losers

This paper examines the political implications of oil prices as high as $147/b in 2008 or as low as $33/b in 2009 on oil producing countries. After a five-year bull run from 2004-2008 oil producers became used to high receipts cementing support at home while buying influence abroad. Thus the political demise of producer regimes was expected to follow the sharp 2009 drop in prices. But amid a sustained economic crisis, the author argues, political resilience became the leitmotif of producer states. He concludes that, with prices and resource nationalism set to rise in tandem, the political impetus could shift back to producers once more, but unless lessons are learned from 2008-2009, all states will lose out.

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