The P5+1, Iran and the Perils of Nuclear Brinkmanship

This briefing examines the implications of the "diplomatic roller-coaster" in relation to nuclear negotiations between Iran and the West. Whereas the US and EU advocate sanctions to force a compromise, Iran appears to bank on a re-elected President Obama displaying more flexibility and an economically-incapacitated Europe fearing the adverse consequences of tougher sanctions. The author argues that this eventuality is unlikely. If prospects for a deal fade, mutual escalation is more probable – and pressure by Israel for a military strike will increase.

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