15 July 2012
Safe Havens in Syria
Missions and Requirements for an Air Campaign
This working paper examines the scale, scope and likelihood for success of a possible NATO-led intervention in Syria. The analysis presented suggests that an intervention in mid-2012 to establish safe havens in Syria defended from the air would be major military undertaking, likely requiring greater forces, facing greater risks, and with a lower probability of success than an of NATO's previous air campaigns in response to humanitarian crises in Bosnia, Kosovo, or Libya. The problem of emerging target detection and identification would pose a major challenge for NATO air forces without help from ground forces.
© 2012 Brian T Haggerty
Brian T Haggerty