Europeanisation as a Gravity Model of Democratisation
Much analysis of trends in democratization gives a rather pessimistic message, with such sweeping notions as the end of the third wave of democratization or the democratic transition paradigm. A closer look at what has been happening in Europe, however, suggests that such analyses have often overlooked an important explanatory variable, captured in what we may call a "gravity model". The gravity model of democratization joins up with the mechanisms of Europeanization, with democratization progressing fast and deeply in 20 European states that were recently non-democratic, and which have various integrative relationships with the EU. This paper takes a close look at the "gravity model" and examines the democratization processes in the countries of the former Ottoman Empire and the former Soviet Union.
© 2004 Michael Emerson and Gergana Noutcheva
Michael Emerson, Gergana Noutcheva
This paper includes an appendix that lists the judgements of the European Court of Human Rights in cases involving CIS member-states of the Council of Europe.