Europe, Russia, the United States and the Rest: Strategic Compatibility in a Period of Transition?

This brief argues that as the international strategic landscape shifts away from the United States and Western Europe, the continued viability of existing cooperative security governance frameworks is being brought into question. Global power shifts are clearly occurring, but their precise direction and implications are uncertain. The Russia-US-European strategic triangle is unstable due to a trust deficit, as well as four key conditions: national strategic narratives that diverge from reality; agreement on strategic ends but not means; ineffective multilateralism due to institutional and organization weaknesses; and the rise of a multi-polar Europe. What sort of institutions will develop is unclear.

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