29 Sep 2009
Germany: Return of the FDP
Germans return the FDP to power after an 11-year absence, giving Merkel the chance to form the center-right coalition for which she has been yearning, Andrew Rhys Thompson comments for ISN Security Watch.
By Andrew Rhys Thompson
Even though German Chancellor Angela Merkel retained her seat, Guido Westerwelle, the economically savvy leader of the Liberals (FDP), was the big winner of Germany's national elections on 27 September.
Leading his party to 14.6 percent of the vote and its best-ever showing, the massive gains by the FDP enable Merkel to dump the Social Democrats (SPD) as her coalition partner and form a new government with the party of her choice.
For Merkel, such an ‘upgrade’ in terms of personal preference and political compatibility is also made possible by the record nosedive of the SPD, which compared to the last elections in 2005 lost more than 11 percent and plummeted to 23 percent of the vote, its worst-ever showing in post-war Germany.
Even though Merkel’s own Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) took a small hit and lost around a percentage point compared to 2005, and with only 33.8 percent of the vote achieved their poorest result since 1953, the bloc will still have a comfortable majority together with the FDP. What this means is that there will not be any razor-thin dynamics in parliament.
The general weakening of the large centrist parties and the FDP’s strong showing are additionally representative for the rise of the traditionally smaller third parties. Also the Leftist party (die Linke) and the Greens each climbed above the 10 percent threshold, with die Linke getting 11.9 percent and the Greens taking 10.7 percent, respectively. Both parties managed to pick up votes from many disgruntled SPD supporters.
These results therefore create a strong phalanx of left-wing opposition to a new center-right government, although how united and well coordinated especially the SPD and die Linke will be remains to be seen.
While SPD chancellor candidate and outgoing foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was quick to announce his ambition to serve as the new opposition leader, it is unclear whether the party base will accept him for such a role, or if he and party chairman Franz Müntefering might be jettisoned and formally made responsible for the election fiasco.
During the campaign, Steinmeier never was able to match Merkel’s profile or pedigree and did not succeed in raising any issues that might have captivated either his political base or voters at-large. Because Steinmeier and Merkel also had to work together as ongoing coalition partners, the campaign never really heated up until just a few days before the actual election date and was marked by overall dullness.
German news magazine Der Spiegel even went as far as calling it: “[…] an election campaign that is in fact a non-campaign.”
Not surprisingly, voter turnout then also came in at a record low, with only 70.8 percent going to the polls, down from 77.7 percent in 2005.
The shift from a centrist grand coalition, which was born in 2005 simply for lack of any other alternatives, to a center-right government with a mandate for neo-liberal reforms, will therefore shape the face of German politics during the next few months. Merkel’s CDU/CSU will need to cater to the self-confident and energized demands of Westerwelle’s FDP, which will likely bring with it an agenda for tax cuts and various reforms to the social welfare state.
Westerwelle himself will become the deputy chancellor, and if he chooses to follow the usual tradition in Germany, whereas the leader of the junior coalition partner serves as foreign minister, he will take charge of the country’s foreign affairs. For the FDP it will be a return to the government after 11 years in opposition and for the first time since the Helmut Kohl era.
Ultimately, Merkel’s second cabinet will be judged by its ability to stabilize and revitalize the German economy amidst the ongoing global economic crisis, and how well her government will do in combating unemployment.
Andrew Rhys Thompson is a correspondent for ISN Security Watch.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author only, not the International Relations and Security Network (ISN).
Creative Commons "Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported"
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