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Northeast Asia: Business As Usual or New Departure?

Flags of China, South Korea and Japan, courtesy KOREA.NET/flickr
Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 Generic Creative Commons - Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 2.0 Generic

Northeast Asia's core: China, South Korea and Japan

The fundamental structural changes that continue to shape the international system undoubtedly underpin predictions that we are now living in the Pacific Century. A region stretching from the Indian subcontinent to Japan's Hokkaido Island is home to the majority of the world’s population and increasingly shapes the global economy. As a result, countries such as Japan and Indonesia are now regarded as emerging powers whose influence is felt way beyond the Asia-Pacific region. More importantly, China has emerged from its prolonged period of economic slumber to become a frontline global power.

To reflect China’s transition from regional to global hegemon, Beijing continues to significantly increase defense expenditure. In 2012 China’s defense spending will break the $100 billion barrier for the first time. The country's defense sector continues to develop a range of weapons and hardware that include stealth fighter aircraft and an anti-ship ballistic missile. Of even greater significance is China’s ongoing development of its first aircraft carrier, a vessel that will only add to the Peoples’ Liberation Army-Navy's 'blue water' capabilities.

Consequently, China’s growing military prowess has alarmed its near neighbors and contributed to the US' decision to redirect its strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region. It also reflects that Northeast Asia in particular is still characterized by a range of power dynamics more associated with the 20th century. Relations between China, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK), for example, remain colored by historical memory and nationalist sentiment. As a result, trilateral initiatives aimed at enhancing regional economic integration and easing tensions on the Korean peninsula remain compromised by mutual distrust and suspicion.

Accordingly, Northeast Asia continues to play host to balance of power dynamics, whereby the likes of Japan and the ROK continue to look to the US to fulfill the 'honest broker' role for the region. Yet the very fact that three Northeast Asian states with long histories of animosity are increasingly cooperating with one another raises a number of fundamental questions. Will this very 20th power dynamic, for example, remain the preferred model for Northeast Asia for the foreseeable future? Or do events like the annual trilateral summits provide foundations for a more cooperative and politically integrated region?

In order to address these questions we begin our week-long focus on Northeast Asia by determining China's hegemonic aspirations. Consideration of Beijing’s foreign policy trajectory and how it might influence the future power dynamics of Northeast Asia is followed by an analysis of the interrelated policies shaping Northeast Asia. Are China, Japan and the ROK irretrievably ‘locked in’ to balance of power dynamics or is an alternative, more integrated approach to regional politics possible? On Wednesday we expand upon this question by determining what other models of regional cooperation and integration exist and how they may shape the power dynamics of Northeast Asia.

Our week ends with a rebuttal against claims that a more cooperative and regionally integrated Northeast Asia is possible. Instead, territorial disputes are among a host of issues that help to maintain mutual suspicion and balance of power dynamics. To demonstrate this, we conclude by highlighting a number of territorial claims and disputes throughout Northeast Asia and how they further compound arguments that the region remains colored by 20th century power dynamics.


China: Global Actor or Regional Suzerain?

25 Jun 2012 / Audio

SIPRI's Bates Gill argues that prospects for regional integration across Northeast Asia are likely to be tempered by the continued rise of China as a global power. More on «China: Global Actor or Regional Suzerain?»


The Balance of Power in a "Complex" Northeast Asia

26 Jun 2012 / Special Feature

Are China, Japan and South Korea "locked in" to a traditional balance of power dynamic, or does another future path exist? More on «The Balance of Power in a "Complex" Northeast Asia»


Regional Cooperation and Integration in Northeast Asia

27 Jun 2012 / Special Feature

Attempts at fostering greater regional cooperation across Northeast Asia are likely to remain compromised by entrenched political elites and nationalist sentiment for the foreseeable future. This suggests that the 'idea' of regional cooperation is more viable than the development of working institutions. More on «Regional Cooperation and Integration in Northeast Asia»


Regional Conflicts: Managed But Not Resolved

28 Jun 2012 / Audio

What are the prospects for regional security cooperation in Northeast Asia? Not good, predicts Ralph Cossa. More on «Regional Conflicts: Managed But Not Resolved»


Disputed Waters, Contested Lands

29 Jun 2012 / Special Feature

Persistent territorial and maritime disputes in Northeast Asia suggest that the region remains mired in balance of power politics. Today’s map features some of the most prominent examples. More on «Disputed Waters, Contested Lands»


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