Northeast Asia: Business As Usual or New Departure?
The fundamental structural changes that continue to shape the international system undoubtedly underpin predictions that we are now living in the Pacific Century. A region stretching from the Indian subcontinent to Japan's Hokkaido Island is home to the majority of the world’s population and increasingly shapes the global economy. As a result, countries such as Japan and Indonesia are now regarded as emerging powers whose influence is felt way beyond the Asia-Pacific region. More importantly, China has emerged from its prolonged period of economic slumber to become a frontline global power.
To reflect China’s transition from regional to global hegemon, Beijing continues to significantly increase defense expenditure. In 2012 China’s defense spending will break the $100 billion barrier for the first time. The country's defense sector continues to develop a range of weapons and hardware that include stealth fighter aircraft and an anti-ship ballistic missile. Of even greater significance is China’s ongoing development of its first aircraft carrier, a vessel that will only add to the Peoples’ Liberation Army-Navy's 'blue water' capabilities.
Consequently, China’s growing military prowess has alarmed its near neighbors and contributed to the US' decision to redirect its strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region. It also reflects that Northeast Asia in particular is still characterized by a range of power dynamics more associated with the 20th century. Relations between China, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK), for example, remain colored by historical memory and nationalist sentiment. As a result, trilateral initiatives aimed at enhancing regional economic integration and easing tensions on the Korean peninsula remain compromised by mutual distrust and suspicion.
Accordingly, Northeast Asia continues to play host to balance of power dynamics, whereby the likes of Japan and the ROK continue to look to the US to fulfill the 'honest broker' role for the region. Yet the very fact that three Northeast Asian states with long histories of animosity are increasingly cooperating with one another raises a number of fundamental questions. Will this very 20th power dynamic, for example, remain the preferred model for Northeast Asia for the foreseeable future? Or do events like the annual trilateral summits provide foundations for a more cooperative and politically integrated region?
In order to address these questions we begin our week-long focus on Northeast Asia by determining China's hegemonic aspirations. Consideration of Beijing’s foreign policy trajectory and how it might influence the future power dynamics of Northeast Asia is followed by an analysis of the interrelated policies shaping Northeast Asia. Are China, Japan and the ROK irretrievably ‘locked in’ to balance of power dynamics or is an alternative, more integrated approach to regional politics possible? On Wednesday we expand upon this question by determining what other models of regional cooperation and integration exist and how they may shape the power dynamics of Northeast Asia.
Our week ends with a rebuttal against claims that a more cooperative and regionally integrated Northeast Asia is possible. Instead, territorial disputes are among a host of issues that help to maintain mutual suspicion and balance of power dynamics. To demonstrate this, we conclude by highlighting a number of territorial claims and disputes throughout Northeast Asia and how they further compound arguments that the region remains colored by 20th century power dynamics.
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