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Central and Horn of Africa - From Stability to Instability

AMISOM Troops Up at Dawn on Mogadishu
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AMISOM Troops Up at Dawn on Mogadishu's Frontline

The final installment of our focus upon Africa considers the continent’s most problematic regions. Whenever Central and the Horn of Africa are talked about, the violence and political instability that plague these regions are usually mentioned in the same breath. Central Africa’s long history of political violence and brutality is often attributed to the colonial powers’ decision to divide the region without due regard for social and ethnic coherence. This led to the creation of central African colonies that defied the logic of the region’s ethnic affinities. And more often than not the rule of the colonial powers was marked by extreme brutality. King Leopold’s rule of the Congo, for example, is widely considered to be one of the most brutal periods of the entire colonial era.

Central Africa’s post-colonial history has also been marked by periods of violence and instability. Like its neighbors in Southern and Western Africa, the region has struggled to address a multitude of economic and political problems. This often resulted in the military seizing power or the brutal enforcement of ‘strongman rule’. Further complicating the political and security dynamics of Central Africa has been the flow of migrants across the region that are either fleeing political violence or economic hardship. Indeed, such immigrants in turn complicate ethnic tensions in their host countries, which often results in further violence.

While the Horn of Africa also experienced colonial rule, the region is unique in that its largest country - Ethiopia - has never been formally colonized. Yet Ethiopia has been far from a beacon of regional stability. Instead, Ethiopia’s modern political history has been marked by revolution, Cold War competition and territorial conflict with its neighbors. However, since 1991 Somalia has been inextricably linked with the concept of the failed state. Clan rivalries contributed to the overthrow of then President Siad Barre and resulted in Somalia’s ongoing inability to form a workable political system. Further complicating attempts to form a government in Somalia has been the emergence of Islamist groups who have seized control of parts of the country and closely aligned themselves with al Qaida.

Accordingly, stabilizing Central and the Horn of Africa increasingly matters to the international community. Central Africa is not only home to considerable amounts of natural resources, its sheer size means that the political violence and instability that continues to plague the region is also widespread. Conversely, the Horn of Africa is home to a phenomenon that compromises the security of one of the world’s busiest shipping routes. The absence of authority within Somalia has allowed pirates to target vessels in the Gulf of Aden and beyond. And while both regions play host to military deployments and humanitarian intervention to counter such concerns the common refrain remains unchanged - what has gone wrong in Central and the Horn of Africa?

In order to answer this question we begin by tracing Central and the Horn of Africa’s recent historical march towards instability. What then follows are case studies that highlight the onset of disintegration at the regional level. After considering Kenya and Somalia on Tuesday we turn to the recent separation of Southern Sudan from the rest of the country. In doing so, we ask whether the international community has been partly responsible for the creation of a newly-minted failed state? Indeed, has the creation of Southern Sudan also changed the pattern of disorder and political violence across the region?

We end the week by considering how national and international actors are attempting to bring a semblance of stability to Central and the Horn of Africa. On Thursday we begin by analyzing how international actors have been attempting to address the problems that continue to bedevil both regions. Have their attempts to stabilize Central and the Horn of Africa been entirely successful? To assist in answering this question, we round off the week by analyzing the effectiveness of local attempts to bring peace and security to these most fragile of regions.


Moving Towards Weak and Failed States

04 Jun 2012 / Special Feature

From de-colonization to the end of the Cold War and beyond, Central and the Horn of Africa have been blighted by political violence and state failure. Today we trace the regions’ march towards fragility. More on «Moving Towards Weak and Failed States»


Kenya’s ‘Economic’ Conflict with Al-Shabaab

05 Jun 2012 / Special Feature

Kenya’s recent incursion into Southern Somalia demonstrates that the world’s ‘most failed state’ impacts upon the security dynamics of its neighbors. This may lead to ethnic unrest in Kenya’s election year. More on «Kenya’s ‘Economic’ Conflict with Al-Shabaab»


South Sudan: A Newly Minted Failed State?

06 Jun 2012 / Audio

Sage International’s John Bruni argues that Khartoum has been doing all that it can to sabotage the development of South Sudan. Yet a lack of outside investment may allow China’s influence to increase in both countries. More on «South Sudan: A Newly Minted Failed State?»


Too Many Players, Too Few Solutions?

07 Jun 2012 / Special Feature

The aid and military support that the international community offers to Central and the Horn of Africa may be stifling ‘local solutions to local problems’. More on «Too Many Players, Too Few Solutions?»


Regional Actors in East and Central Africa

08 Jun 2012 / Audio

Stephen Oola discusses how the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are offering ‘local’ solutions to the problems facing Central and East Africa. More on «Regional Actors in East and Central Africa»


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