Much like South America, West Africa’s post-colonial history can best be described as ‘potential unfulfilled’. Independence across the region introduced a familiar set of problems ranging from ethnic tensions to the emergence of ‘strongman’ rule. Such problems, in turn, helped to create the conditions for underdevelopment, poverty, state corruption and repression. More often than not, this prompted the return of former colonial powers - in conjunction with a host of international actors and organizations - to provide humanitarian assistance and enable Western models of governance. Consequently, West Africa has long been cast as an inherently unstable region where it is difficult to do business and enact long-lasting change.

Yet such perceptions of West Africa are gradually changing. Countries such as Ghana demonstrate that the region is by no means a byword for undemocratic rule. Transnational organizations like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) promote economic integration and enhanced political cooperation. In the shape of Nigeria, West Africa also has a state with enough resources to be considered a bona fide regional and continental power. Crucially, a degree of political stability has allowed West Africa to forge international relationships beyond the West. Emerging Asian powers like China continue to invest heavily in the region’s infrastructure, often in return for natural resources. This has also contributed to West Africa’s insertion into the global economy and incremental improvements in quality of life.

However, parts of West Africa continue to be bedeviled by the same long-standing problems. Many states remain corrupt and far from democratic. It also remains to be seen whether organizations like ECOWAS or the African Union (AU) can effectively deal with intra-state conflicts in countries like Mali. There are also concerns that the increased presence of China in West Africa is doing little to enhance democratic governance and is more about Beijing exploiting the region’s natural resources than trying to lift it out of poverty.

As a result of such inconsistencies, this week we consider whether West Africa really is becoming a geopolitical zone of importance. We begin by asking two simple questions - have Western models of governance and political institution building in West Africa worked? If not, does the region offer indigenous alternatives that have contributed to the social and economic wellbeing of West Africa? We then debate whether Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has proved to be a savior for one of the most impoverished parts of the world or whether it is an instrument of resource-hungry states. Indeed, addressing such concern is essential as China continues to make greater investment in the region than the West.

As parts of West Africa remain unstable, we also assess the security dynamics across the region. In particular, we consider whether ECOWAS is a genuine force for change in the region. As doubts remain as to whether greater integration is the key to a more stable West Africa, we then assess Nigeria’s prospects of becoming a regional power. Are demographics and natural resources enough to secure regional hegemony or might ethnic unrest lead to the fragmentation of West Africa’s most populous state? As Nigeria’s short-term future is likely to be complicated, we round off our week by considering the potential security challenges facing West Africa security over the next five years.