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Forecasting in the ‘Real World’: Near-, Mid- and Long-Term Trend Analysis

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What do you see?

Forecasters commonly differentiate between the near-, mid- and long-term when making predictions about the future. In this dossier, we use these frameworks to present and discuss concrete examples of future forecasting in relation to international affairs. Specifically, we first look at two examples of short-term forecasting, one medium example, and finally a long-term view of the evolving international system. Finally, we provide a professional insider’s view of some of the problems associated with effective future forecasting.

Word cloud of futures thinking methods, courtesy of Venessa Miemis/flickr

Forecasting in the Real World: The Short-Term Outlook

21 Nov 2011 / Special Feature

Today the ISN considers the development and practice of short-term forecasting. We compare and contrast the respective approaches to short-term forecasting utilized by STRATFOR and the Center for Security Studies. More on «Forecasting in the Real World: The Short-Term Outlook»

Photograph of Dr. Joseph Nye

A Mid-Term Outlook on the Dynamics of Power

22 Nov 2011 / Special Feature

Dr Joseph Nye, former assistant secretary of defense and former dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, shares his outlook on the future of power in the mid-term. More on «A Mid-Term Outlook on the Dynamics of Power»

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Long-Term Trend Projections and Alternative Scenarios, Part One

23 Nov 2011 / Special Feature

Having examined short and mid-term forecasting earlier this week, we look at long-term projections and their purpose today. The Project on National Security Reform’s Vision Working Group Report serves as an illustration. More on «Long-Term Trend Projections and Alternative Scenarios, Part One»

Sun setting over the skyline of Tel Aviv, courtesy of Ron Almog/flickr

Long-Term Trend Projections and Alternative Scenarios, Part Two

24 Nov 2011 / Special Feature

Today, we continue our look at long-term forecasting with two additional studies: one that reflects a rather conservative approach to global change, as well as a genuinely innovative and original one. More on «Long-Term Trend Projections and Alternative Scenarios, Part Two»

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The Challenges and Pitfalls of Future Forecasting

25 Nov 2011 / Audio

David Smith, Founder and CEO of London-based Global Futures and Foresight (GFF), discusses the work of forecasting and the focus of the GFF. More on «The Challenges and Pitfalls of Future Forecasting»

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