Future Forecasting and Its Challenges
Forecasts are as difficult to make as they are helpful in preparing us for the future. While some say that such activities should be left to astrologers, others, including economic forecasters, risk analysts and intelligence professionals, have invested heavily in trying to develop credible, scientifically-based predictions. As part of our fundamental inquiry into global political change, this dossier looks at future forecasting from an international relations perspective.
After first debating the pros and cons of future forecasting, we analyze three problems that are endemic to the effort — politics, risk analysis and methodology. Finally, we look at how these problems actually manifest themselves in a representative example – the security strategy of the United States.
Additional Content
- Past, Present and Future Ways of Bounding Hard Power and War: An Eight-Part Blog (ISN Blog Post)
We know that a robust contemplation of the future must be grounded in the past.
- Driving in the Dark (Publication)
The author of this report proposes a new approach to prediction and national security.
- Thinking About How We Manage Our Priorities is as Important as Forecasting Them (Chapter / Section)
The thesis I propose must by now have become clear: accelerated globalization and emerging non-trad...
- Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability (Publication)
This paper examines ways to combine qualitative and quantitative models of early warning for politic...
- Intelligence Failure and the Importance of Strategic Foresight to the Preservation of National Security (Publication)
This paper examines the role of horizon scanning and strategic foresight towards strengthening natio...
- Fukushima and the Limits of Risk Analysis (Publication)
Risk analyses serve to identify future opportunities and risks systematically and thus make them cal...
- Randomness: Why It Matters and What to Do About It (Publication)
Risk is different from uncertainty. Conflation errors result from treating both as though they were ...
- Resilience: A Tool for Preparing and Managing Emergencies (Publication)
This paper argues that in recent years, the concept of resilience has gained traction.
- Strategic Foresight: Anticipation and Capacity to Act (Publication)
This paper discusses the concept of strategic foresight as a tool for preserving and enhancing strat...
- A Risky Business: Saving Money and Improving Global Health Through Better Demand Forecasts (Publication)
This report addresses the access to medicine in poor countries and argues that the global supply cha...
- Some Thoughts on US Intelligence (Chapter / Section)
Intelligence is supposed to effectively account for distant developments, forecasting significant ev...
- Center for Security Studies (CSS) (Organization)
The Center for Security Studies (CSS) is a Swiss academic center of competence with an international...
- International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) (Organization)
The International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) is a nonprofit organization dedicated to developing...
- Pardee Center for International Futures (Organization)
The Frederick S Pardee Center for International Futures is the home of long-term forecasting and glo...
- The James Martin 21st Century School (Organization)
The James Martin 21st Century School at the University of Oxford (Oxford Martin School) is a collabo...
