March 2008
Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability
This paper examines ways to combine qualitative and quantitative models of early warning for political instability and mass violence. The author explains that the advent of quantitative forecasting models has led to calls for such models to replace traditional qualitative analysis. He argues, however, that policymakers and analysts should insist on a multiple-method approach, which has greater forecasting power than either the quantitative or qualitative method alone.
© 2008 United States Institute of Peace (USIP)
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Author:
Jack A Goldstone
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204
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