2007
Forecasting Iraq’s Future: From Invasion to Partition
In light of the security plan that US and Iraqi troops began implementing in February 2007, this article proposes two main scenarios: The first takes on the assumption that the new security plan succeeds, ending the civil war and maintaining Iraqi unity; and the second supposes the plan fails with an all-out civil war leading to a possible division of Iraq. Stemming from the second scenario, the author discusses three sub-scenarios concerning the conclusion of the civil war: the dominance of a specific faction, a joint compromise and the division of Iraq.
© 2007 World Security Institute (WSI)
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Saif Salah Nasrawi
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