29 May 2007

A Risky Business: Saving Money and Improving Global Health Through Better Demand Forecasts

This report addresses the access to medicine in poor countries and argues that the global supply chain does not work well because of poor forecasting of effective demand for products. The report provides an analysis of the problem and an agenda for action. It offers recommendations for public and private organizations. Among the recommendations is the creation of a neutral third party to collect data for forecasting demand. Another recommendation is that donors who are the major purchasers should accept more of the risks associated with unforeseen shocks to actual demand.

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