September 2012

Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan: Heading Towards a Regional Crisis?

This paper argues that the revolutionary turmoil in the Middle East is bringing to the fore the deep, structural differences inherent in the Turkish-Iranian-Azerbaijani triangle. After what seemed like a period of growing Turkish-Iranian affinity in the past decade, relations between Ankara and Tehran are on a downward trajectory. On top of that, a secular Azerbaijan finds itself in a sharp ideological conflict with a theocratic Iran, and is deeply concerned with Iran’s anti-Israeli rhetoric and actions. Whether a regional crisis will unfold is largely dependent on the ability of all three countries to forestall the escalation of the existing problems.

Download: