October 2011
Driving in the Dark
Ten Propositions About Prediction and National Security
The author of this report proposes a new approach to prediction and national security. According to him, long-term strategies should be built not on "visions" of the future but instead on the premise that longer term predictions, however presently credible, will probably prove wrong. In light of that statement, he attempts to show that this premise is not sterile or disabling. Instead, he points to five complementary strategies that, he argues, will better prepare the defense community for what cannot be foreseen.
© 2011 Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
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Richard Danzig
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