November 2011
Fukushima and the Limits of Risk Analysis
Fishing boat washed on land by the 2011 tsunami in eastern Japan
Risk analyses serve to identify future opportunities and risks systematically and thus make them calculable and manageable. Today, risk analysis is applied in an increasing number of policy fields, including in security policy. Catastrophes such as the Fukushima disaster raise questions about the limits of this approach, however. In view of difficulties regarding integration of the probability aspect, regarding risk compilation, and regarding its explanatory power, the author advises a differentiated application of the risk analysis methodology.
© 2011 Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich
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Author:
Jonas Hagmann
Editor:
Daniel Trachsler
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104
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