22 June 2011
Unrest in Syria: Political Forces and Scenarios
PISM Bulletins cover
Since 15 March 2011, Syria has become yet another center of an anti-authoritarian, Arab uprising. However, the small scale of the protests, fragmentation of the opposition, consolidation of the regime’s forces, the sectarian character of the society and external actors’ interests make it unlikely that the protests will turn into a national rebellion. For that to happen the army would have to switch sides and, even then, sectarian strife similar to that in neighboring Iraq and Lebanon likely would erupt. The most probable outcome in the current circumstances is for the regime to survive, although with a weakened posture.
© 2011 Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
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Author:
Patrycja Sasnal
Editor:
Marcin Zaborowski, Agnieszka Kopeć
Series:
Issue:
284
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