June 2013

Climate Change, Growth and Poverty in Ethiopia

This paper argues that due to its dependence on the agricultural sector for production, employment, and export revenues, Ethiopia is seriously threatened by climate change. To examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production the author conducts a time series analysis using national and regional level data. The findings reveal that if the current rate of decline in the average annual level of rainfall continues over the medium term, Ethiopia will go without, on average, more than six percent of each year’s agricultural output. Therefore, mitigating and adapting to climate change could sustain growth and reduce poverty in the country.

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