June 2011

CTBT Hold-Out States

Why Did „the Longest Sought, Hardest Fought Prize in Arms Control History” Still Not Enter into Force?

This research analysis aims to identify the motives for not signing or ratifying the CTBT by the nine outstanding hold-outs. This is the principle question addressed here. As the group in focus is very uneven in political, geographical and economic terms, tracing for an answer might either reveal a common ground for the hold-out states’ decisions, or explanations different case-by-case. Unfortunately, states are not very open in publicly laying down their reasons and motivations for their behavior. As there probably will not be any direct answer to the research question, it has to be derived from sub-questions. What is the utility of nuclear testing for states currently possessing nuclear weapons? Here potential motivations for further testing might be conclusive. And if the state does not even possess capabilities for testing yet, what would it need the nuclear weapons for? Would this utility implicate future testing?

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