15 July 2012

Safe Havens in Syria

Missions and Requirements for an Air Campaign

This working paper examines the scale, scope and likelihood for success of a possible NATO-led intervention in Syria. The analysis presented suggests that an intervention in mid-2012 to establish safe havens in Syria defended from the air would be major military undertaking, likely requiring greater forces, facing greater risks, and with a lower probability of success than an of NATO's previous air campaigns in response to humanitarian crises in Bosnia, Kosovo, or Libya. The problem of emerging target detection and identification would pose a major challenge for NATO air forces without help from ground forces.

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